Research, not hype
The Simple Markets estimates bear / base / bull ranges for major crypto assets using public on-chain and market metrics — NVT, MVRV, Metcalfe’s law, and protocol fee multiples. Every number traces back to an assumption you can show a client, a fund, or yourself. Stocks and property come next.
Not financial advice. Models are scenarios with stated assumptions, not predictions.
A “target price” is only credible if you can name the economic claim behind it. Faircast uses four claims that already exist in traditional finance, adapted to crypto.
Network Value to Transactions compares market cap to on-chain settlement volume. If NVT is stretched vs its own history, the bear case mean-reverts. If volume catches up, the base case holds today’s multiple.
Implied cap ≈ median NVT × annualized transfer volume
Realized cap is the aggregate on-chain cost basis. MVRV = market cap / realized cap. Historically, deep discounts (MVRV ≪ 1) mark floors; rich premiums mark tops. We map MVRV bands to scenario prices.
Bear ≈ realized cap · 0.8 Base ≈ realized cap · 1.6 Bull ≈ realized cap · 2.8
Network value tends to scale with the square of active users. We calibrate today’s cap to current addresses, then grow users at conservative / base / aggressive rates for 12 months.
V ≈ k · n² → k = market cap / n² today
For smart-contract chains, annualized fees are “revenue.” Apply a growth-company sales multiple. ETH and SOL get this overlay; BTC uses settlement NVT instead of fees.
Implied cap ≈ annualized fees × multiple (20× / 40× / 70×)
Blend of the four models, equal-weighted where a metric applies. Refresh uses CoinGecko + documented fallbacks if the API is rate-limited.
The Simple Markets is in trial mode. Donations keep the data running. Memberships come later if the research is useful.
For now
Coffee / anytime
$19/mo
The Simple Markets is independent research at thesimplemarkets.com. Nothing here is an offer to buy or sell securities or tokens, and it is not personalised investment advice. Past relationships between metrics and price can break. You can lose money. Affiliate links, when live, are advertisements.